Crowd Source

Make your best guess at a tricky quantity, then face a hidden crowd whose average is uncannily accurate, and try to beat it.

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How to play

Each round asks you to estimate a real quantity. After you submit, a hidden crowd of 200 guessers weighs in and its average is revealed alongside the truth. You score big by landing closer to the true value than the crowd's average, a hands-on demonstration of the wisdom of crowds. A number line shows you, the crowd and the truth side by side.

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What you'll learn

Crowd Source pits your judgment against the aggregated wisdom of a simulated crowd, teaching when many guesses beat one.

Origins

Comparing your estimate against the average of a hidden crowd is the wisdom of the crowd, and the founding demonstration is Francis Galton's: at a Plymouth country fair in 1906, the median of 800 guesses at an ox's weight came within 1% of the true 1,198 pounds.

Revealing the crowd only after you commit is the original sequencing.

Committing first is essential to the effect rather than a formality. The mechanism is that independent errors average out, so a crowd that has seen its own average is no longer independent and no longer wise — which is also why the result is so much weaker in practice than the ox story suggests.

About Crowd Source

Crowd Source is an estimation game that pits your judgment against the aggregated wisdom of a simulated crowd. It's an original free browser game made for PlayPendium.

A free, original browser game on PlayPendium. No download, no install.

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