Stack balls on the outcomes you think are likely, that's your probability distribution, then drop reality and let an honest scoring rule grade your confidence.
At the bottom of a peg-drop board sit outcome bins. Move your fixed budget of balls onto the bins to express how likely you think each outcome is, taller stacks mean more confidence. Lock in and a ball falls into the bin reality chose. A proper scoring rule grades you, rewarding calibration over reckless all-in bets, and your prior is nudged toward what happened to seed the next round.
Plinko Mind is a calibration game built on proper scoring rules, turning a peg-drop board into a tool for honest probability estimates.
Distributing a fixed budget of balls across outcome bins to express how likely you think each one is is probability elicitation — stating a belief as a distribution rather than a single guess.
The peg board is the Galton board's, but here you are not watching chance produce a shape; you are producing one.
Forcing a fixed budget is what makes it honest. You cannot call everything likely, because every ball placed on one outcome is taken from another — which is exactly the constraint that makes a probability distribution sum to one.
Plinko Mind is a calibration game built on proper scoring rules, turning a peg-drop board into a tool for honest probability betting. It's an original free browser game made for PlayPendium.