Plinko Mind

Stack balls on the outcomes you think are likely — that's your probability distribution — then drop reality and let an honest scoring rule grade your confidence.

How to play

At the bottom of a peg-drop board sit outcome bins. Move your fixed budget of balls onto the bins to express how likely you think each outcome is — taller stacks mean more confidence. Lock in and a ball falls into the bin reality chose. A proper scoring rule grades you, rewarding calibration over reckless all-in bets, and your prior is nudged toward what happened to seed the next round.

• Your ball stacks are a literal probability distribution.
• Choose between a log score and a Brier score.
• Bet closer to the truth, don't gamble — over-confidence is punished.

Controls

• Desktop: click a bin or its + / − buttons to stack balls, then Drop reality.
• Phone & tablet: tap a bin and the +/− controls — fully touch-friendly.

Game modes

• Log score or Brier score, each in Daily (shared) or Practice (random).

Tips & strategy

• Never empty a bin completely — a zero stack on a true outcome is heavily penalized.
• Spread your balls to match your real uncertainty rather than piling onto one guess.

What you'll learn

Plinko Mind is a calibration game built on proper scoring rules, turning a peg-drop board into a tool for honest probability estimates.

• Skills: calibration, probability estimates, proper scoring rules
• Best for: roughly grades 9–12 (ages 14+)
• For parents & teachers: learning to say how sure you really are.

About Plinko Mind

Plinko Mind is a calibration game built on proper scoring rules, turning a peg-drop board into a tool for honest probability betting. It's an original free browser game made for PlayPendium.

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